Currencies

Currency continues to be very flat, with analysts seemingly less confident that the £ will break through the 1.40 level against the $ before the end of the year now.

The RBC reported this week that they believe the end of the furlough scheme this month will trigger a larger wave of unemployment which would weaken the £ position.

Wheat

Wheat continues to give us surprises and remain volatile! This week it has been in a very definite downward trend with US markets moving to a 6 week low (but still a very long way to go to reach July lows), with both the Matiff and Liffe moving to 4 week lows. This downward move was ahead of the USDA report on 10th September which is rumoured to be more optimistic than some of the August figures were.

At current levels the UK prices are competitive for export but given that our own exportable surplus is now only a marginal 300,000 tonnes, we would not need to be competitive for long before that surplus was removed.

Given that we are likely to be importers of milling wheat, we could end up in a position where feed wheat is still supported and follows futures instead of the discount to futures which perhaps has been hoped for at points. UK millers have now downgraded their specs to ensure that they can guarantee supply going into the winter months. With freight and logistics across every supply chain at a premium, UK wheat is still going to be their safest option this winter, even if it is at a lower specification.

Soya

Soya prices have been on a downward trend but this now looks to have turned ahead of the USDA report.

It appears for soya, that this could be a mixed bag with ratings unlikely to change from 57% good/excellent, down from the 65% 5 year average, but acreage could be increased slightly from the August report.

Looking at South America, there are issues with logistics in Brazil with a drivers strike and it is being suggested that Argentinian farmers will look to plant more corn over soya next season with corn margins looking more attractive.

Organic Markets

The organic markets for this coming winter continue to move upwards at an alarming rate. Organic cereals across Europe and the Baltic region are tight and there has been a portion which has been sold as conventional because premiums were still too low. When coupled with the ongoing logistics challenges, has seen grain prices move up circa £40 per tonne in the space of a month!

Proteins remain the biggest area for concern with the supply chain unsure if they will be able to secure the container freight to supply Europe from homes such as China and India. There are still questions over India’s crop and if they will even actively come to the market to sell which would see the UK switch their reliance to Chinese material, something which has not been the case before and comes with its own uncertainties.

The mix of uncertainty over volumes and ongoing freight issues have seen soya move up to over £900 per tonne for new crop.

And Finally…
9/11 20th Anniversary Ceremony to go ahead on a scaled down version.

Last Saturday marked the 20th anniversary since the attacks on the Twin Towers, the Pentagon and Flight 93 which was bound for the US Capitol Building in Washington.

Despite the ongoing pandemaic, the ceremony will resemble more past years with families and survivors invited to the memorial gardens to read the names of loved ones. Last years list was pre-recorded and no attendees were permitted. The evening will also see the usual tribute in light which will shine upwards in the spot where the towers stood.

2,983 people lost their lives that day in the attacks. There will be 6 moments of silence at the corresponding times to when each of the planes struck and the times the towers fell.

There will also be various live televised concerts to mark the occasion as well as the traditional 9/11 memorial stair climb where firefighters across the US climb the equivalent of the 110 flights of stairs which many of the 343 firefighters killed on 9/11 took in their attempts to rescue as many people as they could.

Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey