Currencies

Currency markets have been fairly uneventful this week, and with continued underlying support for £.  A positive driver for Sterling are the predictions of a larger than expected spending boom over the coming months, as the UK exits lockdown, but a change in the UK stock market is now also helping.  During the past year, investors have moved out of traditional stocks, moving into tech stocks which have seen a huge period of growth, but investors are now becoming concerned that these stocks have reached their limits and are looking to move from those into more traditional ‘normal’ stocks such as UK equities which then has a direct impact on £ value.   

Wheat

Global wheat markets have had a quiet start to the week ahead of the USDA report, which when it came, offered little surprises.  Wheat was the only one of the major three commodities which had its global carryout figure lowered from 304 MlnT to 301 MlnT, but with the cautious optimism around new crop and the corn story running out of steam, that still meant cereals markets trending lower.  France reported this week that their crop ratings are currently 88% good/excellent which is a 4 year high for this time of year.  Despite the optimism of new crop, the spread between old and new is holding firm which shows the concern still over that old crop position.  This could mean that even if globally, new crop is good, that spread could take some time to work itself up and potentially pull the first part of new crop up.

Looking at the UK, prices have bounced within a small range and ended the week largely the same as the previous week.  Even if global markets do continue to move lower, it is unlikely the UK market will follow in the same way as we have the tightest balance sheet in Europe and still need to source a significant amount of imports to see us through to the end of the season.   

Soya

Soya prices were drifting lower at a steady pace, until the USDA report, which slightly increased US carryout figures now that Brazil is finally making headway with its shipments.  March 2020 was a record month for Brazil, moving 10.8 MlnT through their ports but it looks like this March could well break that. 

China have now switched from buying US material to South American which is what helped those carryout figures.  We are still hearing reports of swine flu outbreaks which would suggest their buying could slow. 

And Finally…
How a group of grieving parents 25 years ago won to change UK gun laws

Few people could forget where they were on 13th March 1996 when they heard the news that a man had entered a primary school in the small Scottish town of Dunblane and fired 105 shots in quick succession resulting in the death of 16 children young children and their teacher.

Shortly after the event, a parent group known as the Snowdrop Campaign, delivered 705,000 signatures to Downing Street calling for the total ban of handguns which was met by large amounts of opposition from groups claiming it was a knee jerk emotional reaction.  Despite this, they were successful, and the law was passed in November 1997.

The legacy of this campaign can be seen in Dunblane itself at the Dunblane Centre which was built using funds which were donated from around the world.  The centre is a positive place which hosts many events and clubs aimed at the youth of the town and regularly plants Snowdrops in order to remember. 

The town also is now home to Andy Murray’s famous gold post box after his win at the 2012 London Olympics, as a further sign of how this town has tried to leave the evil of 25 years ago behind, whilst always remembering those that were lost. 

Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey