Currencies

Currency continues to be range bound. Any economic data being released in the coming weeks whilst the UK cautiously eases the lockdown could become the main driver now for any significant moves. From a technical point of view, the next critical resistance level for £/$ is 1.38 looking at the moving averages, meaning if we break through that then levels could jump again.

Wheat

Wheat has been mixed this week. There was some downwards pressure after the International Grains Council raised global production figures for 2021 by 16 MlnT. A small amount of the increased availability was absorbed by the anticipated increase in consumption, but this was only a fraction so overall, the net effect was still a bearish to the price of wheat.

Subsequently, the USDA acreage report seems to have contradicted the IGC report. US wheat plantings were reported at 46.4 Mln Acres, a 5% increase on 2020 but the fourth lowest on record. The corn market also saw a less than ideal acreage figure, at a time when Chinese consumption is growing significantly. The news pushed US markets up $16 overnight, dragging the Liffe markets up £4.

The market feels almost in shock at this report and unsure whether to believe the reaction which suggests we are likely to see a correction at some point. US and European weather has been positive for crops over the past few weeks and it felt more as though the market was waiting for prices to move lower so this sharp upwards move was a surprise.

Soya

Soya, like wheat, started the week lower, as the oil complex eased, but ended up finishing `limit up’ (the maximum amount a market can move in one day of trading) after the USDA report on meal and beans. Soya acres had been placed at 87.6 Mln Acres, against a trade estimate of 90 MlnT, the biggest mis-calculation since 2009. Having said that, this was still 5% up on 2020 planting figures and the market is still optimistic of a good South American yield.

And Finally…
Internet searches for Easter Trees goes up tenfold compared to last year

If you have never had a family Easter tree, this year could have been your chance with online retailers reporting an astonishing increase in demand for Easter trees as well as other Easter themed decoration.

The Easter Tree tradition started in Sweden, where twigs were decorated with feathers and eggs by children, whereas in the UK egg hunts have been becoming more extravagant, however it now seems that the consumer also wants to ensure their home looks the best too! Many believe that this has been driven by the fact that we are all spending so much more time at home and looking for some light relief.

It has been reported though that as we approach the first weekend of lockdown easing, many of us will be hosting Easter lunches outside with sales of things such as pizza ovens and outdoor furniture already sold out for many retailers ahead of what is traditionally their busy weekend.

Despite the temptation, it would appear that we are keen to stick to the new lockdown rules as searches for fire pits has gone up 328% in recent weeks!

Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey