Currencies

Currency unfortunately continues to move lower, currently at $1.22 after a surprise decline in UK GDP for April, making 2 consecutive months of negative growth.

Consumer confidence is now at a record low with inflation forecast to hit as high as 11% this winter. None of which will go towards giving the £ any real support in the near future.

Wheat

The wheat market has been in a very clear downward trend this week with fund holders now moving to net short positions for the first time since 2020!

Rumours of a deal to safely allow exports from Ukraine and a revised Russian crop of now circa 89 MlnT, with 45 MlnT export capacity initially triggered the down trend. Since then we have seen early reports from the US where harvest has begun of winter crops suggesting yield and proteins have been looking average, better than had been expected although volume will still be in doubt. Northern Europe has also begun harvesting this week, again with better yields than have been anticipated. The message seems to be that the global balance sheet for wheat is still tight, but far from as bad as previously thought.

UK old crop has moved down £30 in a week although this appears to be an exacerbated market. There had been stories and concern for long enough about shortness of old crop for July and August that consumers covered their requirements weeks ago. It now appears that farmers had more in the sheds than was let on and now that harvest is getting closer, those farmers are looking for homes for the old crop but there is no buying demand. This however will add to any harvest pressure with sales likely to be made off the combine more this season than we have seen the previous 2 years.

Maize prices had been at a discount to wheat a few weeks back but the dryness in the Midwest and questions over Ukraine crop prospects has kept that level steady, and wheat has now moved below it.

On a side note and an interesting fact this week, there seems to be mounting pressure on biofuel usage with statistics showing that of the grain used in biofuel annually, could feed 3.5 Mln of the 8 Mln people classed as at risk of ‘undernourishment’. Food for thought (or is that `fuel for thought?).

Soya

For soya, US plantings are currently in line with their 5 year average planting pace at 95% complete with good levels of moisture.

There has also been more relief on the old crop carry with a shipment of 100,000 tonnes cancelled this week to an unknown destination.

Organic

Organic prices are slowly falling this week for the first time in months. There is a definitive old crop/new crop split with old crop (through to October) having been largely sold out for weeks now but the new crop offers are moving closer to the £500 mark for grain, around £50 per tonne off the high of initial offers.

It is too early to really call prices for proteins which are not due into the UK until January time but early indications from India are that the crops are looking good. China is becoming increasingly unreliable to India will go back to being our main source for next season.

After months of uncertainty and wondering when markets would reach their peak as they continued to break records, it does feel that the last quarter of 2022 could begin to give some signs of pressure easing on feed prices.

And Finally…

An unwelcome intrusion – no problem!

A Ukrainian man, seemed to be somewhat relaxed about a Russian Rocket that entered his flat, and did not explode.

Here, he shows us around his flat, the hole the rocket made, and of course the Rocket itself.

We hope that the premises are soon repaired and that the rocket is repatriated – with interest.

Regards,

Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey