Currencies

The £ fell back slightly to more recognisable levels of $1.34 but remained at €1.20.

The reason for this split was more to do with the strengthening of the $ itself and talks about their own economic recovery then anything fundamentally changing with the £.

Wheat

Wheat is now almost becoming an ‘old crop, new crop’ story with old crop finding support from finely balanced S&D figures which are now under threat of being unbalanced by the situation in Ukraine.

The market relies strongly on Russia and Ukraine for exports of wheat, barley, maize and sunflowers, all of which could be impacted if we do see any move towards a conflict.

If you look at Jan 23 futures contracts onwards, we have seen sharp moves lower this week which supports the general global feel that we could see a recovery for 2022/2023 harvests. All of which is going to make that July, early August transition period in the UK a difficult one to gauge and price!

Soya

Soya again with its tight old crop S&D is becoming ever increasingly price sensitive to news stories. There has been rain fall across Argentina but the question is now, is it enough and is it too late?

Brazil have reported major loses in Rio Grande Do Sol and reduced their overall production figures down to 136 MlnT, although this is still ahead of the 133 MlnT produced last season.

China appear to be back buying which would suggest a good level of recovery in their hog markets.

Organic Markets

Nothing has changed in the organic markets this week. There are still no new offers for grain at origin.

Protein prices are stable at origin and with a sudden surge in growth for the Indian poultry industry on the back of Covid, there potentially be less exportable material available there. The Indian population are now looking to consume more poultry in the hope that a better protein diet will give them some defence against Covid.

And Finally…

Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey