Currency
£/$ 1.2627
£/€ 1.1157

Currency is one the main drivers affecting domestic feed prices. This weak £ has found some limited strength against both € and the $, as the US recorded its highest figures for single day new Covid-19 cases and political commentators hinted that there might still scope for a possible Brexit deal. The performance of the UK economy in the next few weeks as it emergences from lock down will be crucial in determining the likely trend for currency in the short term.

Wheat
Spot £171
Nov 20 £174

Wheat continues to buck the trend of a typical year with harvest prices at a premium to the old crop position. The UK harvest is now set to be the lowest in 20 years at approx. 9-10 Mln T, which will make the UK net importers this winter. AHDB last week reported the total wheat area planted this year will be down 25%, however, they increased the barley area by 52%. This additional barley will take a certain amount of demand pressure away from wheat, particularly as harvest barley prices are around £40 discount to wheat! There is also the global maize picture to consider; it has been reported that there will be a global over supply of 31 Mln T, which has pressured prices downwards and would again take some of the demand away from wheat. Globally despite the drop in wheat tonnages, the overall supply and demand figures still look balanced, just not necessarily in the correct locations. This will take time to resolve but could mean that we see some downward pressure on prices later on in the year.

Soya
Spot £302
Nov 20 £310

Soya prices have been steadily falling back after an anticipated bullish USDA report last week turned out to be fairly neutral. Global bean exports are down 6 Mln T year on year and are not expected to resume to normal levels for some time. Chinese stocks are now at their highest since September 2019. South American demand to process soya has begun to pick up this month, and their end stocks are now at 14 year lows but it is expected that demand will switch to the US from September. US weather has been hotter than is ideal for crop development, but crops are still rated 71% good/excellent.

And Finally…
Exotic frog found in bunch of bananas in Wales after 'remarkable' 5,000-mile trip

Asda supermarket staff discovered a frog in with their bananas last week, which meant that it had travelled from Colombia to South Wales, around a 5000 mile trip! It is thought the frog survived the long journey into a cooler climate without food or drink by slowing down its metabolism, as amphibians are able to do. Colombia is the UK's biggest supplier of bananas, with hundreds of thousands of tonnes making the journey each year. The frog, named `Asda’ in honour of his rescuers, has now been transferred to specialist animal centre Silent World Zoo To You in Haverfordwest.

Regards,

Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey