Grain markets have been fairly flat over the past month. Farmers are reluctant to let grain go, with £200 ex farm seemingly the target for most, however the market is struggling to reach this figure. It could be a more volatile 2 months ahead on the grains Market. Soya has another volatile month with some sharp movements from day to day and generally trading within a £30 market range. Sterling is performing better versus both the Dollar and Euro following recent inflation news and the autumn budget. The organic market is tending to mirror that of the conventional market with cereals and soya both unchanged.

Grain markets in general still feel relatively flat this week. The weaker $ also helped export markets with US material. Soya prices continue to fall back with the market generally well supplied now. The Brazilian crop is being estimated as high as 164.1 MlnT, 1 MlnT higher than USDA projections so it would suggest that the market potentially has more to fall yet as more is known on those plantings. Organic prices are remaining very much flat at the moment. There are currently no real supply issues with any product and even India and China are now starting to compete against each other on proteins again now the Indian certification issues have been resolved.

Markets this week have continued to drift lower following last weeks temporary blip, spooked by concerns over Southern hemisphere quality and quantity. Physical demand in the UK is slow and reportedly at its lowest since 2015, particularly in the poultry sector. Soya prices are finally beginning to come lower but not at any real pace. The next USDA report on 12th Oct could be critical for both soya and grain movements. We are starting to see new crop filter in but demand is still slow which is making establishing a market value difficult at times.

There are quality concerns over this year’s wheat crop and the market is now starting to focus on losses likely to come from Australia due to the severe heat. Maize prices have been slowly coming lower as the US harvest gains more momentum. Soya prices are finally beginning to come lower but not at any real pace. It is now clear that there is ample supply despite the lower US crop. Brazil have begun their plantings which are reported to be 3% higher than last season. Organic prices are remaining very much flat at the moment. There are currently no real supply issues with any product and even India and China are now starting to compete against each other on proteins again now the Indian certification issues have been resolved.

Grain markets this week have been largely flat, bouncing between £187 and £190 on November futures. There is still a huge abundance of cheap Russian and Ukrainian grain flooding the Eastern Europe market. The UK continues to have quality issues, forcing the premium for those soft wheats higher, pulling feed wheat with it. Soya prices continue to remain stubborn, with all market sentiment pointing towards lower prices but physical prices remaining firm. Organic grain has just moved up slightly from the bottom we have been trading at over the past few weeks as expected.

Market have had a mixed week, bouncing off near contract lows with harvest now all but done for the Northern Hemisphere and data starting to feedback through. The grain corridor is being discussed again this week in Sochi between Russia and Turkey which could be bearish for prices if it comes off. Soya prices have also creeped higher this week with continued dryness now stressing crops as harvest starts across the US. Veg oil prices are all moving higher with shortages in palm production caused excessive dryness and an upturn in demand for India for their festive season. Organic grain has just moved up slightly from the bottom we have been trading at over the past few weeks as expected.

Markets this week have been generally more settled with harvest progressing in Northern Europe. Grain markets will continue to be very reactive to any wider geopolitical stories. Soya prices are lower on the week with US crop tours due to start shortly which will give the market clearer direction. Around 38% of the crop is still considered in drought. Organic grain has just moved up slightly from the bottom we have been trading at over the past few weeks as expected. Some Indian sources of soya are beginning to get their certification through and plan shipments to the UK for the later part of the year.

The market is generally weaker this week but still lacking any real direction. The WASDE report this month was as expected, reducing overall wheat production figures by 3 MlnT to 793 MlnT. Currently UK wheat is around £10 too expensive for export. Soya prices have finally moved lower over the past 2 weeks back to where they were pre the last grain rally after the Danube bombings. Organic grain has just moved up slightly from the bottom we have been trading at over the past few weeks as expected. Some Indian sources of soya are beginning to get their certification through and plan shipments to the UK for the later part of the year.

Wheat prices have found their way back to that £190-£200 range. Harvest has got off to a slow start this year with the continued wet weather in the UK with analysts starting to raise concern about what that could mean for quality. Soya prices have largely held this week, some following the easier feeling of the grain markets but also the better weather prospects across key growing areas. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade and origins are likely to be Romania and Kazakhstan this coming season. Some Indian sources of soya are beginning to get their certification through and plan shipments to the UK for the later part of the year but premiums are still quite high and do not quite tip the favour back to Indian now that most mills have had to make the choice to switch to Chinese.

Wheat spent the first half of the week moving higher after Russian airstrikes along the Danube took out one of the other sources of export for Ukraine. Closer to home we have seen some combine action, mostly for rape and barley but wet weather will cause delays and potentially impact quality if it continues into August making this market still extremely volatile and hard to call. Soya prices followed grains higher this week but unlike grain, has held there. There is real concern about the drought impact on crops now in the US and how this will now affect pod setting over the next 4-5 weeks. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade and origins are likely to be Romania and Kazakhstan this coming season. Some Indian sources of soya are beginning to get their certification through.

Wheat prices have seemed more settled this week, settling midway between the £190 and £200 mark. Weather across the US is improving, potentially just in time which is giving a bearish tone to the market but that is being offset by the extreme heat being felt across Europe currently. The UK is currently competitive for export and there is huge demand on the Southern areas for boats which could potentially cancel out much of the ‘harvest’ pressure. Soya prices are slowly coming back lower as the weather now looks right for the critical pod development. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade and origins are likely to be Romania and Kazakhstan this coming season. Some Indian sources of soya are beginning to get their certification through and plan shipments to the UK for the later part of the year.

We have seen a month of extremes again with the market rallying back up to £210 on November futures following the attempted coup military coup in Russia and continued dry weather across the US. It feels as though the market tries to bring itself back to around the £200 mark at the moment as the new normal. Soya prices had been moving lower with the US crop progressing well despite patches of dry weather. The USDA report this week delivered a shock, reducing the US yield projections by 5% from 2023 but increasing corn which was expected to be reduced. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade and origins are likely to be Romania and Kazakhstan this coming season. India soya suppliers are in the process of re registering for their organic status after the EU removed all bodies from their approved organic suppliers, which meant the UK followed suit.

The seemingly never ending bearish view on the market has taken a definite about turn this week, with a combination of rising tensions in Ukraine and continued dryness across Northern Europe. It has been made very clear that Russia no longer feels that the grain corridor is being used to move the grain it was designed to. Soya prices are still coming lower, albeit at a slower pace now with the Ukraine situation escalating. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade and origins are likely to be Romania and Kazakhstan this coming season. Indian soya suppliers are in the process of re registering for their organic status after the EU removed all Indian bodies from their approved organic suppliers, which meant that the UK followed suit.

The delay in the agreement of Biden’s budgetary plans has weakened the $. The question with wheat now appears to be, how much lower could it go, and will the switch to new crop be the trigger to level prices? The Ukrainian grain corridor has been extended. European crop ratings this week are still very good but the long range weather forecast needs to be monitored as it suggests another summer like 2022. Soya prices are still falling, but slowing due to concern over dryness for El Niño weather patterns. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade. The sunflower supply situation has now rectified itself which has levelled those prices back out again.

Interest rates were risen further, up to 4.5%, the highest levels since 2008. The wheat market has now switched to a point where new crop is a premium over old crop. Currently UK wheat is still too expensive for export. Canadian crop is doing well and likely to be able to offset what has been lost in North America this winter. Soya prices are still falling but there has been a stall. 35% of the US crop has now been planted, well above the year on year average of 21%. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade. India soya suppliers are in the process of re registering for their organic status after the EU removed all bodies from their approved organic suppliers.