Currencies
The main news this week is that interest rates were risen further, up to 4.5%, the highest levels since 2008. This is a further attempt to bring inflation back down closer to target. The currency market saw this as a positive though as the £ briefly lifted to $1.26.
Wheat
The wheat market has now switched to a point where new crop is a premium over old crop, something we have been citing as a possibility for some time now. This price reflects the amount of old crop material which still needs to find a market pre harvest vs the long term S&D figures, which although in balance, are looking tighter for the coming season. Currently UK wheat is still too expensive for export, suggesting we could see further downside on the old crop to come.
In terms of outside news, it is now looking highly likely that the grain corridor will not be extended next week but with the surplus available, this certainly for now, is not being viewed as a bullish flag as such. For new crop, the Canadian crop is doing well and likely to be able to offset what has been lost in North America this winter. European weather too has so far been an ideal mix of heat and moisture, supporting crop development.
Soya
Soya prices are still falling but there has been a stall, following concerns over how the Black Sea situation could impact oilseed availability over the coming months. The concern over dryness for El Nino weather patterns could impact yields in Malaysia which will impact palm oil availability as well.
However, the flip side of that, favourable weather in the US and record levels of plantings means that the market will struggle to hold any sort of long term price rally. 35% of the US crop has now been planted, well above the year on year average of 21%. The next WASDE report due today will give the first clear indication of 23/24 crop projections.
Organic
Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade and origins are likely to be Romania and Kazakhstan this coming season.
The sunflower supply situation has now rectified itself which has levelled those prices back out again.
India soya suppliers are in the process of re registering for their organic status after the EU removed all bodies from their approved organic suppliers, which meant the UK followed suit. This is likely to be August/September before we know if any are successful which means it is more than likely soya supply will switch to Chinese certainly in the short term. This means lower quality protein which could bring in some other alternative protein sources into organic diets in order to be able to balance that.
And Finally…
Insects in the diet?
We are often asked about the addition of insects as a component of feeds, and at the moment, the answer is inconclusive, but students at North London Collegiate School, an independent girls school have voted for it to be on their menu.
In a vote on sustainability, the pupils voted to trial a different menu. As a result, two thirds of their meals are now vegetarian, and are also trialling insect based foods.
The menu includes teriyki baked grasshopper, sweet chilli and lime crickets, and buffalo worms, with Vanilla worm cupcakes to finish!
The insects have been sourced from a website called Souschef, who admit that the diet is more expensive, with a 15g bag of Peri Peri roasted crickets costing £2.90!
That is the same problem we face with the potential of using insects in our feeds. Aside from the fact that UK legislation does not yet allow its incorporation in feeds, it is expensive. Whilst there is good potential on using insects in animal feeds, they cannot be produced in a way that is close to replacing the key proteins that we already use, such as soya and sunflower. Until insects are cost effective to use, and legislation changes, we are not yet in a position to enjoy the insects as much as the girls of North London Collegiate School obviously do.
Watch this space though…..
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
