The £ has reached yearly high of $1.26 after the Bank of England suggested that they would continue to raise interest rates further. Wheat started the week testing new contract lows, following corn lower, but by the end of the week had turned round. The UK remains £10-15 away from being competitive for export which would suggest that prices could come lower still the closer we get to harvest. Soya prices continue to move lower. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade. In terms of proteins, we have seen the first example of shippers no longer carrying strategic stock and the UK effectively has run out of organic sunflower awaiting new shipments. India soya suppliers are in the process of re registering for their organic status after the EU removed all bodies from their approved organic suppliers, which meant the UK followed suit.

The £ has seen very little movement in the past week. Wheat continues to move lower with new crop wheat now being offered at sub £200 for the first time in over a year! Globally there is still a huge volume of wheat available which needs to find homes before harvest. Maize has been trading at a premium of circa $60 over Chicago futures but that dropped down to $10 this week. Soya prices are off around £20 in the week this week. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade and origins are likely to be Romania and Kazakhstan this coming season. India soya suppliers are in the process of re registering for their organic status after the EU removed all bodies from their approved organic suppliers, which meant the UK followed suit.

The £ has seen very little movement in the past week. Wheat saw a slight recovery at the start of the week over concern that the extension to the grain corridor in May could be in jeopardy. We also saw this week Poland and Hungary attempt to stop imports of ‘cheap’ Ukrainian grain to their traditional export homes. In terms of new crop fundamentals, the UK winter wheat crop is slowly starting to improve, and French soft wheat is currently at 94% good/excellent. The market is struggling to hold any rally with the glut of wheat still left from the 2022 harvest and as the next harvest is approaching fast. Soya prices are slowly coming off still, due to slow demand from China and Brazilian shipments weighing on prices. Sunflower vessels are still struggling to make their way through Turkish controls so this is causing short term supply issues. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade. In terms of proteins, we have seen the first example of shippers no longer carrying strategic stock and the UK effectively has run out of organic sunflower awaiting new shipments.

The £ has seen strength this past week with reports that it could top $1.30 by the end of the year. Energy prices are also falling. Wheat has broken clear of the £200 support line and has been trading between £190 and £198 for the past 10 days, suggesting this is now a new normal trading range – for now. European market prices are effectively capped by these cheaper Russian, Ukrainian, Polish supplies effectively keeping a cap on all market prices. Soya prices are slowly continuing to come off now that the South American crop has all been accounted for. Organic prices appear to have found a level at the moment which is generating new crop trade and origins are likely to be Romania and Kazakhstan this coming season. India soya suppliers are in the process of re registering for their organic status after the EU removed all bodies from their approved organic suppliers, which meant the UK followed suit.

The £ continues to move within that 0.01 range after news that inflation hit 10.4% in February. Wheat prices have been largely on the rise this week after testing that £188 level and looking settled around £197. Old crop is still holding a small discount to new crop which is not encouraging farm sales when there is opportunities to sell but the market is so awash with physical wheat and rolled contracts, that this does not appear to be causing an issue. Soya prices are still making huge daily swings of £10-15 some days which makes forming a long term strategy on proteins difficult. Sunflower origins for the UK look that they will switch back this season from predominantly Argentinian, back to traditional Black Sea material. Organic prices continue to drop on old crop as the market struggles to find any real demand.

The £ continues to suffer with news this week that inflation hit 10.4% in February. This week has seen May futures test a bottom of £188, before settling back up at £204 by the end of the week. There are some bullish watch points we need to be aware of for new crop. In terms of weather patterns as well, the US has seen some late cold spells which have caused frost in some areas across the Midwest. There is still a huge amount of domestic grain and this is echoed across the world, and this will give us an historical carry into next season which could counter some of these bullish watch points. Soya does feel like it has priced in the Argy story of a 25 MlnT crop and is now focussed on the Brazilian harvest and potential US plantings. Sunflower origins for the UK look that they will witch back this season from predominantly Argentinian. Organic prices continue to drop on old crop as the market struggles to find any real demand.

The £ continues to suffer as the expectation that inflation will fall in Europe during this quarter helps to strengthen the €. UK May futures prices for wheat are now at their lowest levels since the contract started, this despite the ongoing negotiations over the grain corridor extension. The more than adequate global wheat stocks and a seemingly healthy looking new crop on the horizon are keeping wheat prices on the defensive. The flow of sunflower for the coming summer looks to be easing now with shippers making offers available from Black Sea, moving away from Argentinian supply. Soya this week seems to have finally broken lower after rallying last week again on the news that the Argentinian crop will now be circa 25 MlnT. Organic prices continue to drop on old crop as the market struggles to find any real demand.

The £ has suffered this week dropping back down to $1.19 on the back of $ strength. Wheat appears to have reached the end of its current rally and is beginning to drift back. It has already been reported that Russia are deliberately delaying inspections in Turkey with vessel lines up now somewhere around 108 long. Maize markets continue to look volatile with prices creeping up with continued dryness in Argentina, however rain is now forecast over the coming week. Similar to maize, short term soya prices have rallied over dryness however, we are still looking at a record South American crop. Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading.

Currency surprisingly remained unchanged week on week despite the report published showing that the UK is expected to have the worst performing economy in G7. Wheat markets saw the first rally since Christmas this week, mostly as a reaction to it being technically ‘over sold’ and spec money looking for a way in. In terms of our UK market, Trade is quiet with even futures only trading around a third of expected volumes. There is of course the continued geo-political element to the market and with the 24th February anniversary approaching, there is concern over the long term viability of the grain corridor. Soya prices have rallied this week with concern over small pockets of dryness in Argentina. Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading. The lack of organic volume is making pricing almost a paper exercise.

Currency has remained static week on week, with a perceived weakness to the $ being the reason rather than anything fundamental shifting with the £. Wheat markets have continued to move downwards post WASDE which was seen as bearish to the market. Russia continues to be the cheapest source of global wheat. The concern now is that come the spring, futures stores will need to start to come to the market to sell wheat in order to make space for new crop. Soya prices despite the overall sentiment that there is more than sufficient supply, seems reluctant to come down. Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading. Shippers and compounders have huge stocks because of the downturn we have already seen in volume which is making pricing almost a paper exercise.

We have started the new year slightly weaker on currency than we ended. The wheat market rallied between the Christmas and New Year break but this appears to have been month end profit taking as there was very little volume traded. Ukraine continues to surprise having exported their second highest volume of the season last month. S&D figures globally still look more than adequate despite the concern over Argentinian dryness. Looking purely at crop fundamentals, the markets are very much on a downward trend. Soya saw extremely sharp rises over the Christmas break but this appears to be fund money hedging their bets while markets were closed against the dryness in Argentina. Organic prices seem to have found a level now albeit, not really trading.