The UK wheat market remained range bound for yet another week. The November UK wheat contract finishing the week at £135.50/T has remained within a £5 range since early September.
Politics, and by that we mean Brexit, remains the only real market driver, and the day to day changes can be dramatic whether there is a deal or not, an extension/Transition period/WTO tariff and election or not, or indeed a general election. When you ask traders for a view there is too much ‘I don’t know’ in terms of explaining the situation. For this reason, following the earlier attempt to sell while we can, the crop seems content to remain in the store. Currency is still providing the big swings on commodity markets on a day to day basis.
New crop prices (post harvest 2020) are trading at a considerable premium, achieving values over £140/T due to the recent weather leading us to only 30-40% planted in the UK. Although many feel there is still time to recover especially with the big wheat and barley crops this year, it is still brave to sell what is currently not there to grow.
IGC DATA showed that wheat production for the 2019/20 year is expected to be higher than last year, with ending stocks near those in the high of 2 years ago. However, more stocks will be held in China and India rather than with the biggest export countries. Global barley stocks are predicted to rise 20% year on year with the EU leading this rise. This could be an interesting situation for UK barley in the future depending on the outcome of Brexit. Russia has proved that it was always there waiting reliably for their wheat export business to commence. It is back at the number one spot with Egypt in second following a record 3 million T sale to Turkey since July.
Positive news continued to rumble around the US China trade discussions. Telephone discussions were said to be “close to finalising” Phase 1 while giving little specific details. With this now being commonplace and after the dispute lasting so long the effects to the markets have reduced. However, news that Chinese purchases were slowing was enough to see soya bean prices drop much of the previous gain. Trade increased their net short position for soya beans to 35,718 for the week ending 22nd October.
In India, SOPA reported that rain had inflicted damage to the soya bean crop likely to have a significant impact on production. This was alongside a drive in the country to become self-sufficient in edible oils requiring 80 million tonnes of seed production. A fall in income from soya bean meal would be a real concern in achieving this.
Nobody likes to feel that life is a rat race. But we found a rat race that the rats seem to enjoy, and one that teaches us about mental health at the same time. Scientists at the University of Richmond taught rats to drive cars to gain a food reward. `Style’ for rat cars is a little behind our own, with the car essentially a clear plastic tub with wheels. The seat is an aluminium plate with three copper wire bars to press for left right and straight ahead complete a circuit to steer. After learning to drive the rats could navigate around a 4m pen and even corrected there parking positions better than many drivers at the local shops.
The research not only taught us how capable these little pests are but gives insight into treatment for many conditions. Rats raised in enriched environments with things to do found it easier to pass the driving test compared to those living in empty cages. In addition, the rats found learning to drive relaxing. Researchers measured the levels of corticosterone, a stress marker, and dehydroepiandrosterone, which reduces stress, and found as they drove the rats relaxed and enjoyed learning. Rat drivers had higher dehydroepiandrosterone levels than rats acting as passengers in the cars. This research could help find none drug therapies for illnesses like depression or schizophrenia and help assess motor skills and spatial awareness in Parkinson’s disease to name a few. Further tests are needed to examine which brain areas are involved alongside similar trials in other animal models.
Who wants to train the first chicken race car driver sponsored by Humphrey Feeds!
Brought to you by Melanie Blake and Martin Humphrey
