The Sterling has been relatively stable with only a small decrease against both the euro and dollar. I would expect with significant political events, like the latest Brexit deadline and phase 1 US and China trade deal, in this month currency volatility could become a significant driver in the commodities markets again.
The UK wheat price reached £162/T this week with little change from last week on the Nov 20 contract. Pressure on the nearer contracts was greater, and the spread moved to around £10. This week initially saw a small dip down in the spot price, only to effectively move sideways for the rest of the week. London wheat is effectively tracking Chicago and Matif milling wheat, and with the US and China deal rumoured to be so near, the trade is mostly waiting on what will happen.
UK wheat is still considered expensive compared to maize and barley for many buyers, and trading volumes have been low. In the UK, the price change was mostly related to currency change.
Friday saw the long-anticipated January WASDE report from the USDA. Often a significant event, yet on this occasion the markets showed relatively little reaction. The USDA report saw a significantly lower US wheat carry out than had been predicted by the trade, with a US winter wheat area slightly higher than expected. Pressure has been added in all US markets following the US air strike in Iraq. Chicago wheat, maize and soya beans all saw prices drop. Add to this soil moisture is at a 5-year low in Brazil, significant especially in maize producing areas. With these events adding price pressure in the US markets which influence other markets globally.
The soya market is still focused on the phase one trade deal which should be signed this week. The significance on this market has resulted in a slight increase in soya price but with a definite `wait and see’ feeling. The trade has been burned before in the `will it happen or not’ of this long-standing story. Lower acreage but improved yield expectations led to the USDA reporting 2019 US production figures for soya beans at 3.5 billion bushels. US end stocks were reported as 12.9 Mln T, which was unchanged from December and 12% higher than trade estimates.
The tensions in the Middle east added volatility in price with both uncertainty over crude oil supplies and potentially reduced US exports to these areas causing concern. The demand for soya meal, has led to a small reduction in the price of soya oil (when oil goes up, meal prices go down, and vica versa) , which was also helped further by Palm shortages continuing. Brazil is still reporting a record soya bean crop making the Chinese demand, both how much and from who, the big one to watch this season.
One New York teen has made a great first impression on a 5-week internship with NASA. Seventeen-year-old Wolf Cukier was tasked with going through data on star brightness for NASA’s Goddard Space Centre in Maryland. The data from an ongoing Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission (TESS) was looking 1,300 light years from Earth. He noticed a slightly darker area in one of the systems suns. This dark spot turned out to be a newly discovered planet!
Wolf remembers he had noted lots of extremities in his notes that day but that he put 10 asterisks next to this one. It took weeks with the mentors at NASA but they confirmed his discovery and just how rare (or lucky) Wolf was to find it. To discover the circumbinary planet, a transit event must be occurring to show the decrease in brightness on the sun. With two suns in this system orbiting each other every 15 days this made it even harder to spot a transit event from the planet that only occur every 93-95 days.
The planet is so far called TO1 1338 but Wolf thinks Wolftopia might be better. At Humphrey Feeds we know the right data can inspire great results but hope the Generation Z’s intergalactic takeover focuses on the discoveries and not necessarily the naming!
Brought to you by Melanie Blake and Martin Humphrey
