Currencies
Currency has had a relatively stable week with the vote of no confidence against Boris seemingly having little affect on the £.
There has not been any fresh news to move the market either, so all eyes will now be on the PM to see if the measures he announced earlier this week after the vote, are enough to drive market confidence.
Wheat
The market continues to move in a volatile manner this week. Pre the Jubilee weekend, we saw sharp moves lower on the back of the humanitarian corridor for grain movement being discussed out of Ukraine.
As we returned post the Jubilee holiday, the market initially jumped higher and this was triggered by funds who had previously sold, now buying back in which would suggest still a long term bullish view for wheat.
Looking at the fundamentals; US and France are still concerning, and now appear to have lost their chance to recover from dryness. India’s ratings are getting worse by the week, but harvest has now started there.
Having said that, looking at the UK market, current estimates are for us to produce circa 15 MlnT, giving us a clear exportable surplus. At current market prices, UK wheat is around £15 per tonne over priced to be competitive for export which would suggest a move lower.
However, the market is ‘trading the war’ and any hint that the now factored in grain which is due through the new humanitarian corridor, is not going to be available, will push all markets higher, and take away the chance for that £15 correction.
Soya
Soya prices now continue to be all about the US plantings story. Exports of old crop US material has slowed and is down 25% on the previous 4 week period which has eased old crop prices slightly but new crop has the bigger potential for downward price moves, with ideal weather not only meaning that planting is going well but that the area may well increase further than predicted.
The sunflower picture is also now beginning to ease with traders globally now having a better understanding of what stock is where, reducing some of that risk premium from the markets. Summer prices are now being offered, albeit close to £400 still, but winter prices have now come back down to more of a mid £370 level with the caveat though that supply will be tight so ownership is still the critical factor.
Organic
We are beginning to see offers for both grains and protein for new crop (October/November onwards time), and although the price is extremely high, the material is available which means we will see consistency in our diets.
As we have said before, we understand that this is an extremely concerning time for our customers and we would encourage you to speak to your Sales Representatives to ensure you are getting the maximum performance out of your flocks or if you wish to speak about the raw material markets in more detail, our Procurement and Formulations Manager, Kay Johnson is also available.
And Finally…
One Village’s Jubilee Celebrations
The village of Wellington in Herefordshire decided that it would celebrate the Jubilee by having some Royal Scarecrows, not quite by Royal Appointment, but the spirit was there.
The villagers applied themselves to the challenge, and the final count was 104 scarecrows all to the theme of ` kings, queens, princes, princesses or anything with a royal connection’, so quite broad really.
Some people through themselves at the task with suitable artistry and innovation:
Whilst others seemed to have missed the point a little:
Royalty of another kind?
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
