Currencies
Currency had stayed unchanged week on week at 1.36 against the $ and 1.18 against the €, but it has found a bit more against the $ towards the back end of the week with inflationary fears in the US.
Having said that, with high profile food manufacturers this week coming out and publicly saying people need to get used to paying more for food, we are also looking at the same scenario which would suggest that, as has been the pattern since Brexit, the £ will continue to look very range bound.
Wheat
Wheat prices continue their upward trend, albeit with a blip on Wednesday which was put down to profit taking post WASDE report. The well publicised issues over increased fuel costs, energy costs and wages are all seeping into the agricultural commodities prices now.
There are still rumours of Russia bringing in export caps post Christmas and the WASDE report this week cut both the US and Canadian crop further than the previous reports.
Having said that, the South American crop appears to be going well with good volumes but quality is an issue. This would mean that the usual North African homes may not be an option and this would push more into Northern Europe. This could be beneficial for our UK feed wheat prices.
We need the Southern Hemisphere harvest now to really understand what the balance is for cereals this season and this could then give our next opportunity for forward cover and a lower price than current values.
The final UK crop data will be released in December but preliminary figures have put wheat at 14 MlnT, up from last years 9.35 MlnT but still not enough to mean we will not need significant imports towards the end of the season.
Barley has gone back to a more standard 7.1 MlnT, 1 MlnT less than last year but that was to be expected given the better planting conditions for wheat this season.
In terms of drilling and planting progress, the conditions so far have been ideal but it is too early to tell. If we do have a predicted extra large crop for 2022, then we may see some reprieve in prices again come the spring.
Soya
Soya dropped heavily pre WASDE report with profit taking, and continued to fall post report. For the first time in a long time, funds were short of both beans and meal, but long of oil. This is because of the continued increased demand for veg oil globally at the moment but is making for an interesting spread in the market.
In terms of the UK price though, they are still hovering around the mid £350’s for the winter because of the weak £ and concerns over vessel delays and keeping supply chains going through that old crop/new crop transition.
Organic Markets
Organic markets continue to find support from the ever worsening freight situation. Grain prices have moved up another £20-30 per tonne in the past 10 days, but with no real offers if you did actually want to buy.
The protein situation seems to be switching from favouring Chinese material back to India. China has no freight available and have withdrawn from the market for new sales. There are still concerns over whether or not they will fulfil existing contracts.
The Indian harvest is now underway and early report are that the crop looks good but offers are still limited. The premium for Indian material over Chinese is beginning to narrow back down to a more recognised figure, but those sales prices are still historically high. Q1 prices remain over £1000 per tonne, but for Q2 we are seeing around a £50 discount.
And Finally…
‘There is no foot too small that it cannot leave an imprint in this world’
For those 1 in 4 who never get to take their babies home, every 15th October at 7pm, SANDS, the Stillbirth and Neonatal Death Society, organise a ‘Wave of Light’ hour to raise awareness of their cause and allow parents to share their stories.
Although every day these babies are in the hearts and minds of their parents, the 15th October is a way of showing that nobody needs to deal with this situations alone and breaks the taboo that it should not be talked about. In recent years, social media has played a huge part in spreading the word of this event so let’s see if this evening, we can once again fill our social media pages with beautiful lights to remember those babies who lit up lives for too short a time.
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
