Currencies
Currency has seen a slightly better week again but still very much range bound. Against the $, 1.39 is now a level of resistance following the announcement that the impending US/UK trade deal is not only delayed but could be delayed by up to as much as 2 years! The € level of 1.17 has been stagnant for a while now with rising cases of the Delta Covid variant across Europe, the market appears to be waiting to see what the impact of that will be.
Wheat
Grain markets had started the week all moving lower on both better weather and increased expectations of EU and Black Sea production figures. Black Sea volumes are expected to be somewhere around 31.7 MlnT this season compared with just 26.3 MlnT last year and France are reporting circa 40 MlnT, compared to 32 MlnT last year. The general feel is now that tonnage will not be an issue, but quality will with late rain impacting the French harvest already. For the UK, we need the next three weeks to remain dry to avoid any disease issue and that should then see a wheat crop of circa 15.5 MlnT, enough to give us that critical small exportable surplus.
We do need to remain mindful that despite the positive crop projections, we are coming out of a year with very low figures and there will be the need to replenish those stocks and ensure carry outs look healthier going forward so the downside is likely to be limited to around harvest time.
There has also been the reminder towards the back end of the week of just how delicate these markets are with a drier US forecast just switching prices back upwards. The USDA report on Monday reduced the US Spring crop figures to their lowest in 33 years which could significantly impact on the milling wheat availability in North America and Canada.
There has been some barley cut this week across the parts of the country that managed to stay dry in the earlier half of the week although any quality data has not yet filtered through. It is expected that there will be plenty more cut this weekend!
Soya
Soya has stayed relatively flat week on week after its rather large correction following the June acreage report. The USDA report did not really change anything as was expected. The threat of drier weather across the US has just pushed prices up slightly towards the back end of the week, similar to the wheat market. EU crushers are beginning to now switch to rape meal which is showing a positive crush margin so this may just make prices technical in the short term.
And Finally…
Goats who invaded Welsh town successfully ‘deported’ to England.
Mountain goats who took over a Welsh town during the pandemic have now successfully been rehomed across England after scouring Llandudno in search of food.
The goats regularly visit the town but their numbers have spiralled this past year because numbers have not been able to be effectively controlled during the pandemic. The 19 female goats which will stay in the area have now been given a birth control hormone and the remainder will be moved to various grazing conservation sites across the UK.
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
