Currencies
The £ has lost some ground this week against both the $ and € but long term, is still supported with optimism from the Bank of England policy committee continuing. The $ is weakening with the political situation with Afghanistan and questions around their economic recovery with rising infection rates again and unclear direction from the treasury on fiscal packages.
The US Treasury bond yields took a big cut this week which is often seen as a good indicator for economic health. The EU GDP figures are due for release anytime now and expected to be strong, showing around a 2% increase.
Wheat
Wheat continues to be extremely volatile. This week we saw a £5 drop in November futures in one day which was then taken back the following day. Some of this is being driven by the continued questions over quality across Europe and the ability to be able to deliver on contracts within the set quality parameters. The downside is being driven by short term profit taking driven by fund activity.
For the UK, around 80% of wheat is still left to harvest and in many cases, is being left in favour of the spring malting barley which is likely to be one of the few crops this year with a good size export programme. This in theory would benefit the feed wheat market, however, if global production continues to be cut, then there will be underlying support for the market so it could mean that we see higher milling wheat premiums in the UK instead of a discounted feed wheat market. The market is difficult and not following a true trend or pattern which makes buying into it extremely difficult.
Lower tonnages seem to be the trend being reported in most crops for the UK now which is likely to mean we do not get that magic 15 MlnT + crop, making us net exporters. We should still be okay to be deemed sufficient on the balance sheets but time will tell now, we need to get the rest of the wheat cut to understand the true picture.
Soya
Soya has continued its slow climb upwards with mixed weather reports making the market nervous, coupled with a downgrading of crop conditions to 57% good/excellent, down from 60% previously. As we have always said, August is the critical time for this crop and figures were on a knife edge so it feels as though there is now more upside than down. China have re-entered the market now buying several large parcels over the past week.
And Finally…
Olympian auctions off Tokyo silver medal to fund toddlers heart operation.
Maria Andrejczyk, a Polish javelin thrower and herself and bone cancer survivor, auctioned off her medal on her return from Tokyo to give the 8 month old baby a chance of life.
In an interview before the auction, Maria said winning the medal bought her ‘enormous happiness and she wanted to pass that happiness on’. The child’s condition means that she has damage to her heart and lungs because of an increase in blood pressure and is currently being looked after by a hospice in Southern Poland. The money raised will mean she gets a chance at a life saving operations at Standford University Medical Centre in the US.
The winning bid for $125,000 was won by a Polish supermarket chain, who announced that they would be returning the medal to Maria. Maria said that she will be ‘eternally grateful to the company’ saying she had ‘no words to describe how happy I am’.
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
