Currencies
The £ continues to lose some ground against the $ at around 1.39 following the Bank of England meeting this week which although revised GDP forecasts up, was not seen as enough of a bullish factor to keep some of the long positions which has been held before the meeting. The £ followed the same pattern against the € but analysts are still sticking to their guns that the long term view of the £ is a strong one and that this is a blip. The £ has been range bound against both the $ and the € for the pas 12 months now which would support this view that it could break harder as it seems reluctant to fall lower than the current values.
Wheat
US markets continued to move lower this week with cooler temperatures across the Midwest and Great Plains, suggesting that wetter weather will naturally follow. It has been suggested that the EU harvest could be slightly later than had been originally thought which could have been viewed as bullish but the recent improvement in growing conditions has meant this delay is viewed as positive for maximising yield potential. Estimates now stand at 131.1 MlnT for soft wheat versus 119.4 MlnT for the 2020 harvest.
Closer to home, the UK market has followed the same global trend lower with continued weather improvements pushing levels back to their lowest point since February, although still off the lows we saw towards the end of March.
Barley continues to find support from the export market keeping that new crop differential to wheat at between £11-£13 per tonne which will mean that a portion which has been used in the feed market this season will switch back to wheat. The markets feels fairly short of any fresh news now to really drive the price with everyone now waiting in anticipation of the combines rolling!
Soya
All eyes are now very much of the US crop and any acreage data which is released. Crop ratings are currently at 60% good/excellent versus 70% this time last year but with rain in the forecast now, this will likely improve. Last week China made their biggest one day purchase for 5 months of 480,000t but with the uncertainty of the UK biofuel mandate going forward, fund holders appear to be keen to take their profit and move on meaning we continue to see a downward trend. The next key date will be 30th June when the US publishes their latest acreage report.
And Finally…
2021’s Last Supermoon Shines Bigger And Brighter Than Normal.
The final ‘strawberry moon’ of 2021 lit the night sky this week, 30% brighter and 14% larger than normal. These phenoniums occur during the spring season only, leading into what is then typically strawberry season.
Unfortunately for many across the UK the view was obscured by cloud cover but many were able to capture images which clearly shows some of the details across the lunar surface.
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
