Currencies
This week has seen an improvement for sterling against both the $ and € with optimistic news around Brexit negotiations. Although there have been no details released, comments from both sides that talks are ‘progressing’ and at ‘a critical stage’ and that we should expect to hear details over the next week seem more positive then we have heard for some time. It is unlikely any details will be very in-depth at this stage but it should give us some idea on which direction a deal is likely to go. In the US, the $ is being capped by the continued rise in Covid cases. Trump this week has conceded Biden won the election but is still pursuing legal action for recounts in certain states.
Wheat
Global markets have been mixed this week. The US market has been mostly unchanged with some profit taking ahead of Thanksgiving but little activity actually taking place. The French milling wheat market, the Matiff, continues to take its lead from corn moving upwards with both Russia and US this week downgrading their estimates for the 20/21 crop and rumours of shipments from various sources being cash settled. In the US ethanol production has now reached its highest level since March at 990,000 barrels per day which helped offer further support.
UK markets have seen a split between old crop and new crop 2021. Nov 20 has seen some odd prices with traders looking to get out of this position before the contract closes on Monday but further ahead, prices have seen little change. The first early Bird Survey came out on Friday which should begin to give us a picture of the UK plantings and progress for the coming year. Plantings are up 28.3% on last year and it is estimated 1,815,000 hectares has been planted, vs 1,387,000 hectares in 2020. This puts plantings back in line with the 5 year average and also shows a swing back into winter crops over spring.
In the Southern Hemisphere, there are still concerns over dryness across South America but Australia’s wheat harvest is progressing well and is expected to come in circa 30 MlnT. This would give them an exportable surplus of around 10-15 MlnT and provide some much needed competition to Matiff and the Black Sea markets. Russia’s exports are continuing heavily, and they will want to compete with the cheaper Australian material.
Soya
Soya prices continue their upward trend albeit with a slight dip as traders took some profit ahead of Thanksgiving. Chinese demand has slowed there are still questions over if or when that will pick up again. The other continued story is the dryness across South America. Brazil reportedly found an additional 2-3 MlnT of old crop beans this week which should help ease that transition period during February and Mach but they do need rain. The crop in the ground is vast but with US carryouts at their lowest for 7 years, it is needed.
And Finally…
Christmas Treat. The world’s first mulled wine hot tub!
Shringley Hall in Cheshire claims that taking a dip in their new experience allows the pores to open and release toxins because of the high level of antioxidents coming from oranges, cinnamon and star anise. The hot tub is filled with 1,000 litres of wine, that’s 560 bottles, and warmed to 37’c
The experience also comes with a scrub using frankincense, brown sugar, cinnamon and orange oil. Guests are also treated to a compliment glass of mulled wine… hopefully not from the hot tub!
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
