Currencies
The £ has seen relatively little movement over the past 2-3 weeks now with currency looking less and less attractive for investment the more likely it looks like we are entering a global recession.
In terms of domestic news, the market seems fairly non fluxed about either candidate left in the Conservative leadership race but it will be interesting to see what impact the final result has.
Wheat
Markets have ended the week up £15, after initially falling back after the export deal between Ukraine and Russia was signed last week. There are 2 sides to this now, the market reacted to the bombing in Odessa over the weekend but, even taking that out of the equation, the logistics have not been tested as yet, some vessels are full, but can Russia be trusted not to target them, and can they navigate the mine strewn area around the port?
There is circa 20 MlnT of grain due from this deal but at present there is no commitment from vessel owners or insurance companies to sail those routes.
France have cut their yields further this week owing to the excessive heat and in the UK wheat harvest has started early, again as damage limitation to the heat. The news so far is of average yield and similar proteins to last season but we are early days. The main concern is that we had been too expensive for export into Europe, which we will need to be competitive for with a crop circa 15.5 MlnT.
Our Liffe market has risen but other markets have moved more, meaning we are now internationally competitive and have begun export programmes to Spain and Portugal.
It is apparent that this harvest window will be tight and the opportunity to buy near the bottom is not going to be as clear as hoped leading into harvest.
Soya
The soya market had shown some signs of weakness as the US weather looks favourable for this pod development stage.
Old crop sales have begun to quieten off now which will help that tight vary out figure. However, over the week, the market lifted by £30 in nearby positions, and £15 for a year from now.
Similar to wheat though, pipelines are not awash so it could be that we have a small window of opportunity before prices begin to push higher.
Organic
Organic prices are slowly falling, taking some of their lead from conventional markets. The divide between old and new crop appears to be narrowing the closer we get to October now with very little business being done until that next Autumn tranche.
It is too early to really call prices for proteins which are not due into the UK until January time but early indications from India are that the crops are looking good. China is becoming increasingly unreliable to India will go back to being our main source for next season.
And Finally…
Congratulations to the England Lionesses
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
