Currencies
The £ has lost some ground along with almost all other currencies with the increased concern over the Omicrom Covid variant and long term economic pressures that may bring. Adding to that, we still have the uncertainty over Northern Ireland and the French fishing rights to just keep the £ capped.
Wheat
Wheat has very much been a tale of two halves this week. We had seen a £20 drop in May futures off their historical heigh back on 24th November. This seemed to be largely down the world markets being spooked by Covid restrictions and questioning forward demand.
In the last 24 hours though, we have seen a significant move back up, £6 in a day. With so much fund money currently invested in Agricultural stocks, we are likely to see these large swings when they decide to take profit and re buy. Fundamentally, nothing has really changed with the wheat story so these swings lower are merely buying opportunities at the moment rather than a signal of a change in trend.
Australia did release revised figures this week moving their totals up by 3 MlnT to 34 MlnT, which would put them ahead of last years record crop. The issues around quality, farm labour shortages and tightness in freight has not changed though so this is unlikely to really impact the feel of the global Supply & Demand figures for wheat.
Soya
Soya followed other markets and broke its rally to move lower, although this is the one commodity where that break lower feels the right move. Demand from China is still strong but levels of buying but this is all very much nearby winter US material.
South American plantings have gone extremely well and all eyes will now be on the weather and the threat of dryness from a La Nina weather pattern.
Organic Markets
Organic grain markets have made another move higher which feels almost beyond belief! This is still on the back of no new offers at origin and the on going tightness in freight.
For proteins, to add to the questions over supply from India and these smaller decertified bodies, we now have supply issues from China to deal with. For Q2 onwards, Chinese material is pricing better than Indian origin, however, because of localised Covid lockdowns, we have a situation where boats are waiting to be loaded and there is no material to load them with because it is stuck in factories within the lockdown zones!
And Finally…
Rudolph the red phone box reindeer…
A disused phone box has been transformed by local artists for the 10th year running in Ely, Cambridgeshire.
The phone box which was bought by the Parish Council in 2010 has been used as a miniature art gallery but this time of year, locals make their displays a little bigger.
Last year the design featured a giant Santa complete with face mask. Previous to that designs have included Santa’s train and his sleigh.
The phone box has now become a local landmark with people travelling miles to see the designs!
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
