Currency
The £ has swayed between that recent range of 1.30 and 1.32 against the $ this week. Initially it did drop back down to 1.30 when the dollar posted its first gains in almost 2 months on the back of 19 month highs for manufacturing data, and what looked like a consistent fall in US infection rates for the first time.
Sterling has since risen back up to 1.32 in anticipation of a speech this week from the Bank of England concerning negative interest rates as a way of bolstering the economy. We are now less than 70 days from the US elections with the market not really giving much away about how it would react to either result. Some view a change in administration during this period of economic difficulty as concerning as the prospect of the current administration winning another term in office.
There has been little movement against the € with no real fresh Brexit news.
Wheat
US prices moved higher this week, following the large storm which passed across Iowa affecting maize and soya acres. Large crops from Russia, Canada and Australia are helping to keep prices in check. Russia this week have further revised their crop upwards to 82.8 MlnT, an increase of 1.6 MlnT. UK nearby months continue to push higher as had been expected on tightness of short term supply. The harvest in the Northwest of the country has been particularly slow, which has further compounded issues.
There are feed wheat boats from Europe beginning to be discharged in the North of the UK this week which shows that there is the tonnage out there to fulfil demand, but as said before, it will take time to balance itself out. The presence of imports also shows that the level of UK prices are so high that it is cheaper to import wheat. Wheat quality is variable this year so there will be a certain percentage of milling wheat which will be downgraded to be classified as feed wheat but as you would expect, growers are asking for parcels to be sent away for testing which is slowing the process down.
Soya
Soya continued its post USDA report rally, which followed the Iowa storm damage, but has begun to retrace slowly. There are now reports of hurricane Laura, which is currently moving up from the Louisiana, creating a huge storm surge which could cause flooding to some soya acreage. There has been more heavy buying from China. As mentioned before, the plantings in the US were record breaking this year and even with the crop downgraded this week from 74% to 73% good/excellent, that is still well ahead of the 53% average for this time of the year, and in a year where pod counts (crop development) are above their 3 year average. This will all help to keep prices in check, however it does feel like we have now moved away from earlier contract lows.
Looking at the sunflower crop, the tonnage in Ukraine and Russia is large, the crop looks healthy and harvesting should start in the next fortnight. This will then begin to filter through to UK new crop prices as the crush margins for sunflower are healthy, so crushers will want to be selling the meal, particularly as nearby prices are at a premium.
And Finally…
An over friendly seal is escorted out of the Norfolk Broads after jumping up on kayaks and paddleboards unannounced.
The female seal, named locally as Sally, is thought to have swum about 15 miles up river to reach her playground. Despite her friendly nature and wanting to play with local tourists, it was felt that it would be safer to escort her back to the sea as seals can bite if approached too closely. She would also have been at risk from blades and propellers on the many boats and cruisers which use the broads.
Locals used buckets of fish and a spring tide to encourage her back down towards the sea.
Regards,
Kay Johnson & Martin Humphrey
